While Pittburgh's defense took a massive hit with the T.J. Kody Malstrom: It's not every day the starting quarterback returns from injury and is actually deemed s a downgrade, but that is exactly what we have here with Zach Wilson taking over for Joe Flacco. The Falcons have been solid in coverage grades this season, but that’s not going to save them from what Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt should be able to do.īy my numbers, this game should be closer to Browns -3 (despite them being on the road), so I am willing to take them for anything -2.5 or lower. This is the biggest difference between two teams in pass blocking this week, and the second biggest difference in run blocking advantages.Ītlanta’s defense ranks 27th by DVOA and is 32nd in success rate against the run. Per PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart, the Browns have a 34% pass blocking advantage and a 29% rush blocking advantage. This week, Cleveland’s trenches give them a massive advantage over Atlanta. Its rushing attack is more efficient than all but seven passing offenses in the league. To put that into perspective, that’s more than double the next closest team (0.082). This has led to the Browns being sixth in offensive EPA this year as their running game has far and away been the best in the NFL.Ĭleveland’s running game is averaging 0.166 EPA per play. Most would not be aware of this, but Brissett is eighth in the league with 0.178 EPA per play. I'd play the Titans down to +3 in this one.Ĭody Goggin: The Falcons have been a fun story so far this season, but the Browns have been sliding under the radar with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. I will gladly take the points with the Titans in this one. Mike Vrabel is 18-7 (72%) against the spread as an underdog. The road team has won six of the last seven meetings between these teams outright. Matt Ryan has a negative EPA (expected points added) when he drops back to pass. Tannehill is averaging a hearty 8.8 yards per attempt when he is not under duress. Tannehill should be comfortable in the pocket taking on the 29th ranked defense in pressure rate against opposing passers.

Somewhat surprisingly, the Titans’ passing offense has been pretty good to open the season, ranking 8th in DVOA. Indianapolis has only scored on eight of their 35 offensive possessions in 2022, the worst rate in the NFL. If they play well early in this game, the Colts simply do not have the firepower to play catch up. The Titans have the best overall team DVOA league in the first half of football games this year. John LanFranca: Any time I can fade one of the worst offenses in the NFL and get points doing it, I am going to be highly interested. I smell an upset - or is that just the Colts’ stank? Sprinkle the moneyline too. Road division underdogs of between three and seven points have covered 56% of the time historically. Mike Vrabel has been even better at 18-7 ATS (72%) as an underdog of over three, going 17-8 SU in those games with a 102% ROI on the moneyline. Tannehill is 33-39 SU lifetime as an underdog, including 11-7 with Tennessee. Tannehill had six TDs against the Colts last year, and the road team has won six of the last seven in this rivalry. The Titans have actually passed the ball well, so Ryan Tannehill can be the difference maker if Tennessee unleashes its passing attack. Indy’s line has been bad, and Matt Ryan has been worse. Each ranks bottom 10 in rushing DVOA, and the Colts offense is a pathetic 31st in EPA per play and dead last in DVOA. Both teams looked out of it a week ago before saving their season with wins that weren’t exactly pretty and continue to have pretty underwhelming profiles.īoth teams are built old school around run games that haven’t been as good this year with underwhelming offensive line play. Brandon Anderson: This is a pivotal game for the battle atop the AFC South.

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